ATF REPORTS 12% DROP IN REPORTED FIREARM-RELATED INCIDENTS AS eTRACE AND NIBIN USE EXPANDS NATIONWIDE

WASHINGTON — A new Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives analysis comparing national crime-gun data from 2024 and 2025 found a 12% decline in firearm-related incidents reported by law enforcement, while police agencies continued making extensive use of federal firearms tracing and ballistic intelligence systems.

ATF released the analysis on September 22, drawing from several separate datasets, including police reporting through the FBI’s National Incident-Based Reporting System, firearm tracing information maintained through ATF’s Firearms Tracing System, and ballistic evidence entered into the National Integrated Ballistic Information Network Enforcement Support System.

According to ATF, firearm-related incidents reported by law enforcement fell 12% nationally between 2024 and 2025. During the same period, crime-gun trace submissions declined by only 3%, while ballistic imaging entries decreased by just 0.2%.

Those numbers show that submissions to ATF’s crime-gun intelligence systems remained comparatively stable despite the larger decline in reported firearm-related incidents.

ATF interprets that difference as evidence that the modest decline in submissions reflected reduced criminal activity rather than diminished law-enforcement engagement or capability. The statistics establish an association between declining reported firearm-related incidents and continued use of ATF systems; they do not by themselves establish that eTrace or NIBIN caused the national decline.

The agency’s eTrace system is one of the central tools behind federal crime-gun intelligence.

When law enforcement recovers a crime gun, authorized agencies can submit it for tracing through eTrace. ATF says the system can help investigators determine where a firearm came from, when it was purchased, and who bought it.

That information can help investigators reconstruct the movement of a firearm through lawful commerce before its recovery in connection with a crime.

Trace information can also help investigators identify trafficking patterns, repeated purchasers, and connections between crime guns and broader criminal networks.

ATF reported that the national eTrace trace-to-crime ratio increased 9.4% during 2025, meaning law-enforcement agencies submitted more firearms for tracing relative to the number of firearm-related incidents reported during the year.

Tracing does not establish that the original purchaser committed a crime. A trace identifies the chain of lawful commercial distribution and the first retail purchaser when records permit. Investigators must develop additional evidence before determining whether trafficking, straw purchasing, theft, unlawful transfer, or another criminal offense occurred.

NIBIN addresses a different part of the investigation.

The National Integrated Ballistic Information Network allows participating law-enforcement agencies to capture and compare digital images of cartridge cases recovered from crime scenes and test-fired firearms. Similar microscopic markings can produce investigative leads connecting shootings that may initially appear unrelated.

When investigators recover cartridge cases from a shooting, those cases can be entered into NIBIN and compared against evidence collected in other cases. A correlation can alert investigators that the same firearm may have been used at multiple crime scenes.

The resulting lead is not itself a final laboratory identification. It gives investigators a connection to pursue through additional investigative and forensic work.

ATF reported that NIBIN use relative to reported firearm crime increased 13.4% nationwide during 2025. Submissions increased in 22 states and Washington, D.C., while the number of NIBIN sites grew by 11%.

The two systems become more powerful when used together.

NIBIN can show that ballistic evidence from separate shootings may be associated with the same firearm. eTrace can then help investigators determine how a recovered firearm entered commercial distribution and who originally purchased it. Combined with surveillance video, witness statements, forensic evidence, digital records, investigative interviews, and other information, those systems can help investigators reconstruct a broader crime-gun network.

The agency’s 2025 data also highlights a persistent interstate firearms-trafficking problem along parts of the East Coast.

According to ATF, 67.5% of crime guns recovered in Washington, D.C., during 2025 originated outside the jurisdiction. The corresponding figures were 55.0% in New York and 53.7% in New Jersey.

Those figures do not establish that every out-of-state firearm was illegally trafficked. ATF presented the figures as evidence of a continuing trafficking challenge along parts of the East Coast.

The high proportion of out-of-state recoveries is one reason ATF says it plans to concentrate additional outreach and technical support in New York, New Jersey and Washington, D.C.

The agency intends to expand participation in eTrace, NIBIN and related crime-reporting systems in jurisdictions where additional data could strengthen interstate intelligence and help investigators identify trafficking corridors.

ATF’s strategy reflects a shift toward faster crime-gun intelligence.

Traditional firearm investigations could require detectives in separate jurisdictions to discover connections through individual case files or personal communication. National tracing and ballistic systems allow evidence from one jurisdiction to be compared against information collected elsewhere, giving investigators a greater chance of identifying patterns before another violent incident occurs.

A firearm recovered during an arrest in one state may have been purchased in another. Cartridge cases recovered from separate shootings may connect to a single weapon. Multiple traced firearms may lead investigators back to the same purchaser or dealer. Those connections can reveal investigative patterns that would be difficult to identify from one incident alone.

ATF’s September assessment presents the 2025 numbers as evidence of continued national adoption of this intelligence-based model.

The most important statistical distinction is that firearm-related incidents fell much faster than participation in tracing and ballistic systems. A 12% reduction in reported incidents occurred while trace submissions declined only 3% and ballistic entries remained nearly flat.

At the same time, the trace-to-crime ratio increased, NIBIN use relative to reported crime increased, and more jurisdictions expanded NIBIN participation.

Those numbers provide evidence that law-enforcement agencies continued feeding crime-gun intelligence into national systems during a period when reported firearm-related incidents declined.

They do not establish a single cause for the reduction in firearm-related crime.

What ATF’s data does establish is that eTrace and NIBIN are operating nationwide and continue to play a significant role in firearm investigations conducted by participating law-enforcement agencies.

ATF plans to increase that integration.

The bureau says it will work with local agencies to expand tracing, ballistic submissions and comprehensive reporting, concentrating additional attention on jurisdictions where interstate firearm recoveries remain high.

The objective is to expand the use of eTrace, NIBIN and comprehensive reporting systems so participating agencies can more effectively identify violent offenders and disrupt firearm-trafficking routes associated with gun crime.

The 2025 figures indicate that the infrastructure for that approach continued expanding even as reported firearm-related crime moved downward nationwide.

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